Laura Knight Jadczyk

UncategorizedJanuary 28, 2008 12:09 am

I’ve been telling people for years that sott is the one site that scares the bejeebies out of the PTB… otherwise, why would they suppress us? And, out of all the alt news sites, ONLY sott?

But nobody was believing me. I got endless lectures about how fair google was, how the algorithms worked, what we should do to maximize google presence and all that.

So, we did a lot of things, made all kinds of changes. And sometimes, after a change, I would catch a sott article as a first return. But then, I would go back a couple hours later, and it was buried. I guess that oughta make us feel real "speshul," to be suppressed by hand! Kinda like how speshul we felt when the Pentagon Strike Flash went wildly viral and flushed out the "anti-conspiracy theory" debunkers in the Washington Post, Popular Mechanics and Scientific American… who talked about everything except sott even though it was said in the WaPo that this little video single-handedly got the 9-11 Truth ball out of the gutter.

At the same time, all kinds of trash - even OLD trash - with no other links to it from anywhere - defaming me and sott, will appear on the first page of google if you search for my name.

Folks, I think we can safely conclude from this that google is, indeed, bought and paid for by the "National Security State" or the CIA or whoever, and they are the main instrument of suppression on the internet.

 

Google omitting SOTT.net from search results?

A few days ago one of our readers brought this curious detail to our attention. While searching for an article on Google, they discovered a problem with results from SOTT.net being consistently omitted from Google listings.

Our correspondent writes:

"I find just now that if you search any of the text in "quotes" from Henry See’s ‘Provoking Stupidity and Violence’ piece on Hal Turner, Google brings back zero results from SOTT. The same text will be brought up from other sites carrying the story though.

So, say you grab the first few words from it: "Dave Neiwert at Orincus" and search it, according to Google it doesn’t exist on SOTT!

But if you do the same with the title: "Provoking Stupidity and Violence", the article is there!

Other search engines do bring back the SOTT page though. Now how might that happen!?"

How indeed!

Well, our curiosity piqued, we thought it best to go have a look. Was it possible that original articles written by the SOTT team were being ‘disappeared’ by Google, the thread back to the author snipped? Well, lets see…

Agents, Witches and other omissions

First up is the article brought to our attention:

Provoking Stupidity and Violence: Hal Turner outed as Agent Provocateur

Click for larger view.

Sure enough, if you copy the first few words of the article - "Dave Neiwert at Orincus" - as a search term for Google, the above is what you get and no, no sign of SOTT in there. To find SOTT we had to click "repeat the search with the omitted results included" and dig for another five pages to find where the original article lay buried.

Now that might just be some quirk of the system, so to be fair we gave it another shot with this next article written around the same time:

Wars Pestilence and Witches

This time taking the key phrase "triggered by reading Victor Clube", something specific so as not to have results diluted by any possible returns from other articles. The result, one return!

So you’re thinking, well that has to be SOTT right? Wrong! Click below to see the results, on the left is the solitary return from Google, on the right the "repeat the search with the omitted results included" results - where once again we find SOTT and the Laura-Knight-Jadczyk blog.

Well, maybe these articles are ‘too new’ and for some reason not yet picked up by Google as ‘relevant’ enough. Though how a copy of an article on a lone blog in the example above is more ‘relevant’ than the article’s originating page would seem more than a little nonsensical.

So for good measure, here we have some ‘not so new’ examples, to see if time has made any difference (apparently not). As above, initial quoted text search results are on the left, Google’s ‘omitted’ results to the right.

Ultra-terrestrials and 9-11

Transmarginal Inhibition

The Bushes and The Lost King

Seems SOTT.net is one site that Google does not want inquiring minds to visit!

 

UncategorizedJanuary 17, 2008 6:47 pm
©Unknown

It was a warm, clear afternoon in the capital. The bustle of metropolitan commerce and tourism filled the streets. Small sailing vessels dotted the sheltered waters within sight of the government buildings, riding on a soft southerly breeze. The Sun sparkled on the gentle swells and wakes, lending a luminous glow to the poppies and tulips nodding in the parks along the water’s edge. All was in order.

But suddenly, the sky brightened as if with a second, more brilliant Sun. A second set of shadows appeared; at first long and faint, they shortened and sharpened rapidly. A strange hissing, humming sound seemed to come from everywhere at once. Thousands craned their necks and looked upwards, searching the sky for the new Sun. Above them a tremendous white fireball blossomed, like the unfolding of a vast paper flower, but now blindingly bright. For several seconds the fierce fireball dominated the sky, shaming the Sun. The sky burned white-hot, then slowly faded through yellow and orange to a glowering copper-red. The awful hissing ceased. The onlookers, blinded by the flash, burned by its searing heat, covered their eyes and cringed in terror. Occupants of offices and apartments rushed to their windows, searching the sky for the source of the brilliant flare that had lit their rooms. A great blanket of turbulent, coppery cloud filled half the sky overhead. For a dozen heartbeats the city was awestruck, numbed and silent.

Then, without warning, a tremendous blast smote the city, knocking pedestrians to the ground. Shuttered doors and windows blew out; fences, walls, and roofs groaned and cracked. A shock wave raced across the city and its waterways, knocking sailboats flat in the water. A hot, sulfurous wind like an open door into hell, the breath of a cosmic ironmaker’s furnace, pressed downward from the sky, filled with the endless reverberation of invisible landslides. Then the hot breath slowed and paused; the normal breeze resumed with renewed vigor, and cool air blew across the city from the south. The sky overhead now faded to dark gray, then to a portentous black. A turbulent black cloud like a rumpled sheet seemed to descend from heaven. Fine black dust began to fall, slowly, gently, suspended and swirled by the breeze. For an hour or more the black dust fell, until, dissipated and dispersed by the breeze, the cloud faded from view.

Many thought it was the end of the world…

[Reconstruction of events in Constantinople, AD 472, "Rain of Iron and Ice" (1996) John S. Lewis, Professor of Planetary Sciences at the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, Codirector of the NASA/University of Arizona Space Engineering Research Center, and Commissioner of the Arizona State Space Commission. ]

As I have continued to dig into this subject triggered by reading Victor Clube’s paper: The Hazard to Civilization from Fireballs and Comets, it sure appears that I have opened a can of worms. I can report two things at this point: 1) there is a lot of covert research going on about this subject; 2) Victor Clube, himself, seems to have disappeared. We’ve got some researchers digging on that right now and I’ll report back later. It could be the guy just retired, but for the moment, it does seem a bit mysterious considering the things he has written on the topic to hand.

In any event, once you pull one worm out of the can, a whole bunch of others that are tangled up together come out too, and you start getting a bit discombobulated wondering which one you should pull on first! And the things you find out when you start on a subject like this! Amazing! I’ve got a stack of books and papers on my desk two feet high!

Anyway, according to Dr. Lewis, whose fanciful scenario of what it might be like to witness an overhead cometary fragment explosion is quoted above, our Earth actually experiences these types of events rather often, even if somewhat irregularly. Explosions in the sky - some of them enormous - have, according to him and many other scientists, profoundly affected the history of humanity. Strangely, historians, as a group, don’t speak about such things. That is one of the things that is making this research so difficult. It’s not just a matter of going and reading a history book and the author saying something like: Well, in 325 AD Constantine was terrified by an overhead cometary explosion and decided to adopt Christianity as a consequence, and to make it the state religion.

How did this affect history?

The conversion of the Emperor to Christianity certainly couldn’t change the beliefs and practices of most of his subjects. But he could - and did - choose to grant favors and privileges to those whose faith he had accepted. He built churches for them, exempted the priesthood from civic duties and taxes, gave the bishops secular power over judicial affairs, and made them judges against whom there was no appeal.

Sounds like a Fascist regime, eh?

Early Christianity had very distinct and novel ideas that were grafted onto Judaism. Christianity retained and passed on in a virulent way, certain ideals of Judaism which have produced the foundation upon which our present culture is predicated.

The main template of Christianity - received directly from Judaism - is that of SIN.

The history of SIN from that point to now, is a story of its triumph.

Awareness of the nature of SIN led to a growth industry in agencies and techniques for dealing with it. These agencies became centers of economic and military power, as they are today.

Christianity - promoting the ideals of Judaism under a thin veneer of the "New Covenant" - changed the ways in which men and women interacted with one another. It changed the attitude to life’s one certainty: death. It changed the degree of freedom with which people could acceptably choose what to think and believe.

Pagans had been intolerant of the Jews and Christians whose religions tolerated no gods but their own. The rising domination of Christianity created a much sharper conflict between religions, and religious intolerance became the norm, not the exception.

Christianity also brought the open coercion of religious belief. You could even say that, by the modern definition of a cult as a group that uses manipulation and mind control to induce worship, Christianity is the Mother of all Cults - in service to the mysogynistic, fascist ideals of Judaism!

The rising Christian heirarchy of the Dark Ages was quick to mobilize military forces against believers in other gods and most especially, against other Christians who promoted less Fascist systems of belief. This probably included the original Christians and the original teachings.

The change of the Western world from Pagan to Christian effectively changed how people viewed themselves and their interactions with their reality. And we live today with the fruits of those changes: War Without End.

Now, on what basis can we relate the ascendancy of Christianity to overhead cometary explosions?

In a recent issue of New Scientist, (vol 178 issue 2400 - 21 June 2003, page 13) there is an article that reports on the discovery of a meteorite impact crater dating from the fourth or fifth century AD in the Apennines. The crater is now a "seasonal lake," roughly circular with a diameter of between 115 and 140 meters, which has a pronounced raised rim and no inlet or outlet and is fed solely by rainfall. There are a dozen much smaller craters nearby, such as would be created when a meteorite with a diameter of some 10 meters shattered during entry into the atmosphere.

A team led by the Swedish geologist Jens Ormo believes the crater was caused by a meteorite landing with a one-kiloton impact–equivalent to a very small nuclear blast–and producing shock waves, earthquakes and a mushroom cloud.

Samples from the crater’s rim have been dated to the year 312 plus or minus 40 years, but small amounts of contamination with recent material could account for a date significantly later than 312.

The legend of a falling star has been around in the Apennines since Roman times, but the event that it describes has been a mystery. Other accounts from the 4th century describe how barbarians stood at the gates of the Roman empire while a Christian movement threatened its stability from within. The emperor Constantine saw an amazing vision in the sky, converted to Christianity on the spot, and led his army to victory under the sign of the cross. But what did he see?

Could the impact of a meteorite hitting the Italian Apennines have been the sign in the sky that encouraged the Emperor Constantine to invoke the Christian God in his decisive battle in 312 when he defeated his fellow Emperor Maxentius at the Milvian Bridge?

This reminds us of the report of the historian Herodian who described the siege of Aquileia by Maximinus in the 230s during which operation the soldiers saw "the god Apollo" appearing "frequently" above the city and fighting for it. Herodian wasn’t certain whether the soldiers REALLY saw it, or whether they just invented it to explain their defeat. The standard explanation is, of course, that it was common for generals to claim "appearances" in order to give heart to their troops. But maybe, sometimes, they DID see something?

This reminds me of something else: I recently read a news article about a fellow who had a meteorite come through the roof of his house while he was at work. His reaction was extremely interesting: he announced that this was a "sign from God" that he needed to go to church and renew his faith.

What is up with that?

Clube writes elsewhere:

…[W]ithin these last few years, it has been found that there is a great swarm of cosmic debris circulating in a potentially dangerous orbit, exactly intersecting the Earth’s orbit in June (and November) every few thousand years. More surprisingly, perhaps, it has been found that the evidence for these facts was in the past deliberately concealed. When the orbits exactly intersect however, there is a greatly increased chance of penetrating the core of the swarm, a correspondingly enhanced flow of fireballs reaching the Earth, and a greatly raised perception that the end of the world is nigh. This perception is liable to arise at other times as well, whenever fresh debris is formed, but deep penetrations occurred during the fourth millennium BC, again during the first millennium BC, taking in at their close the time of Christ, and will likely take place yet again during the millennium to come.

Christian religion began appropriately enough therefore, with an apocalyptic vision of the past, but in the aftermath of the last deep penetrations, once the apparent danger had passed, truth was converted to mythology in the hands of a revisionist church and such prior knowledge of the swarm as existed, which now comes to us through the works of Plato and others, was later systematically suppressed.

Subsequently the Christian vision of a permanent peace on Earth was by no means universally accepted, and it was to undergo several stages of "enlightenment" before it culminated with our present secular version of history, to which science itself subscribes, perceiving little or no danger from the sky. The lack of danger is an illusion, however, and the long arm of an early Christian delusion still has its effect. […]

The idea of a terrible sanction hanging over mankind is not, of course, new. Armageddon has been widely feared in the past and it was a common belief that it would arrive with the present millennium. During the last thousand years, moreover, it has usually been the reforming church that revived the fear. But such ideas, whenever they have arisen, have always met with fierce opposition. Sometimes the proponents of such ideas escape to new found new lands where in due course they meet opposition of a homegrown kind. In the United States for example, despite freedom of speech, old traditions of cosmic catastrophe have recurred from time to time, even in the present century, only to be confronted by Pavlovian outrage from authorities. That being the case, it is perhaps ironic that elections in the United States are generally held in November following the tradition of an ancient convocation of tribes at that time of the year, which probably had its roots in a real fear of world-end as the Earth coincided with the swarm.

In Europe the millennium was finally dispensed with when an official "providential" view of the world was developed as a counter to ideas sustained during the Reformation. Indeed to hold anything like a contrary view at this time became something of a heresy and those who were given to rabble-rousing for fear of the millennium were roundly condemned. To the extent that a cosmic winter and Armageddon have aspects in common, therefore, authoritarian outrage is nothing new. […]

Enlightenment, of course, builds on the providential view and treats the cosmos as a harmless backdrop to human affairs, a view of the world which Academe now often regards as its business to uphold and to which the counter-reformed Church and State are only too glad to subscribe. Indeed it appears that repeated cosmic stress - supernatural illuminations - have been deliberately programmed out of Christian theology and modern science, arguably the two most influential contributions of western civilization to the control and well-being of humanity.

As a result, we have now come to think of global catastrophe, whether through nuclear war, ozone holes, the greenhouse effect of whatever, as a prospect originating purely with ourselves; and because of this, because we are faced with "authorities" who never look higher than the rooftops, the likely impact of the cosmos figures hardly at all in national plans. […]

A great illusion of cosmic security thus envelops mankind, one that the "establishment" of Church, State and Academe do nothing to disturb. Persistence in such an illusion will do nothing to alleviate the next Dark Age when it arrives. But it is easily shattered: one simply has to look at the sky.

The outrage, then, springs from a singularly myopic stance which may now place the human species a little higher than the ostrich, awaiting the fate of the dinosaur. [Clube, (1990)The Cosmic Winter]

In Cosmic Turkey Shoot, we had a look at Victor Clube’s summary statement of conclusions based on his longer report entitled: Narrative Report on the Hazard to Civilization due to Fireballs and Comets which he wrote under the sponsorship of the US Air Force and Oxford Department of Physics. In the summary Clube writes:

Every 5-10 generations or so, for about a generation, mankind is subject to an increased risk of global insult through another kind of cosmic agency.

Every 5 to 10 generations? That’s a pretty shocking statement. If it is true, then why don’t we know about this? Why don’t historians know about it? Why don’t average people who learn history (one is told) in school, know about these things?

I dug around a bit, following references from Clube, and found that there is, in fact, a group that is looking at these things, but I don’t think they are doing it to inform the general public, nor do they have the best interests of the public in mind. Have a look at the INSAP website and follow some of their links. Their first conference, attended by Clube and referenced obliquely in his report on the Hazards to Civilization, was held at the Mondo Migliore, under the sponsorship of the Vatican Observatory, Rocco di Papa, Italy, from 27 June - 2 July 1994. Their mandate reads:

INSAP conferences explore the rich and diverse ways in which people of the past and present incorporate astronomical events into literary, visual, and performance arts. This emphasis distinguishes INSAP from other conferences that focus on archeoastronomy, ethnoastronomy, or cultural astronomy. INSAP provides a mechanism for a broad sampling of artists, writers, musicians, historians, philosophers, scientists, and others to talk about the diversity of astronomical inspiration.

This, of course, reminds me of the strange recent news item about the new Pope evicting the Jesuits from the papal summer palace. See: Pope tells astronomers to pack up their telescopes

Following that story, one then finds this: Italian scientists attack Pope’s equivocation on Galileo trial

Pope Benedict XVI has been forced to cancel a visit to the prestigious La Sapienza University in Rome after lecturers and students expressed outrage at his past defence of the Catholic church’s actions against Galileo.

The Pope had been due to make a speech at the university on Thursday 17 January 2008. […]

Sixty-seven academics have said that the Pope effectively condoned the 1633 trial and conviction of the astronomer Galileo for heresy, in remarks he made while head of the Sacred Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, the successor to the notorious Inquisition.

As Cardinal Josef Ratzinger, Pope Benedict said that Galileo had turned out to be correct about the earth revolving around the sun, and that subsequent biblical scholarship had rejected literalist readings of texts that had been taken by the Church to deny this.

Nevertheless, he said, Galileo had been dogmatic and sectarian in his statements at the time, and the Church authorities had acted reasonably given the levels of knowledge available then.

But the scientists say that this is "insulting" and unacceptable equivocation. The Church was unjust, irrational and unfair in its treatment of their predecessor and its outright rejection of Copernican theory, they say.

My, my! Well, anyway, before Ratzinger was selected to run the Catholic Fraud Factory, apparently the Jesuits were pretty interested in figuring out what was going on here on the BBM - for what purposes, we may never know.

Clube was there at one of their meetings and presented a paper which is so interesting that I have taken the time to covert it to text and put it in the Sott database: The Nature of Punctuational Crises and the Spenglerian Model of Civilization Parts of it are a bit rough, but it is well worth the trouble of reading it all the way through - maybe more than once - and giving a lot of thought to the implications of what he writes there especially in regard to any group of people who are trying to dig out this kind of information and present it to the public. Clube makes it abundantly clear why this must be considered a revolutionary activity!

Getting back to the narrative report he wrote for Oxford and the USAF, he says:

The sequence of events affecting involved generations is potentially debilitating because, whether or not the risk is realised, civilization commonly undergoes violent transitions e.g. revolution, migration and collapse.

In short, whether or not there are any impacts during those periods when "something is out there, rather close and threatening," people go crazy when they get the feeling that they are living on a target in a cosmic shooting gallery. Yes, indeed, the knowledge that the earth beneath our feet may not be so firmly and peacefully fixed in space assaults our deepest feelings of security. It’s almost as if Clube is saying that there is some sort of contagious madness, a stampeding of human beings, almost, like a herd of cattle stampeding over a cliff because someone accidentally (or on purpose) shoots a gun into the air. That’s not even a bad metaphor because, as we are going to see in today’s installment, it seems that the ruling elite DO tend to take advantage of such conditions for their own purposes which are usually to grab more power and plunder.

Subsequently perceived as pointless, such transitions [revolution, migration and collapse] are commonly an embarrassment to national elites even to the extent that historical and astronomical evidence of the risk are abominated and suppressed.

Indeed, when the madness dies down and the people begin to realize what fools they have made of themselves and, more importantly, what fools their leaders are, when they view how much death and destruction has occurred for no good reason at all except a form of madness, I’m sure that the elites do want to just shove it all under the rug and try to make everyone forget that it ever happened so as to keep their hands on the reins of power. As we will see, this isn’t how it always turns out. Sometimes, the people are so hostile when they see how they have been abused by their leaders, the leaders pay a rather high price… sometimes their very heads!

Upon revival of the risk, however, such "enlightenment" becomes an inducement to violent transition since historical and astronomical evidence are then in demand.

Such change and change about in addition to the insult is evidently self-defeating and calls for a procedure to eliminate the risk.

The term "enlightenment", used above, is a reference to people waking up to what is possibly going on out there in space. Turning to the full-text report, on page 2, discussing potential impacting giant comet remnants, we read that…

…their presence is readily enough betrayed by the zodiacal dust which continues to accumulate in the ecliptic and by the rather sudden encounters which the Earth makes every other century or so, for several decades… These encounters produce an overabundance of fireballs penetrating the Earth’s atmosphere implying both an increased probability of bombardment by sub-kilometre debris AND an increased risk that the Earth will penetrate the core of a minor disintegration stream a la Shoemaker-Levy.

An abundance of fireballs and repeated comet sighting apparently excites a lot of "eschatological" activity - predictions that the world is gonna end - that can lead to all kinds of social unrest which is, as Clube points out, highly undesirable to the ruling elites. After all, if people are thinking the world is going to end, they generally blame it on their rulers for being so corrupt and evil! The way they usually handle that sort of thing is to create an ostensible enemy who is responsible for it all, get a war going that satisfies everyone’s "end of the world blues" and kills of most of them in the bargain! Clever, aren’t they?

Right now, however, I want to come back to that "every other century or so" comment where Clube says this has been happening and then covered up by "governing elites" who are embarrassed. What the heck? As it happens, further on in the narrative we find out just what periods he is referring to:

There have been five extended epochs since the Renaissance when the Earth apparently encountered the fragmentation debris of previously unsighted comets.

Well, we know from the work of Mike Baillie that the period around 540 AD is highly suspect as the period around the Black Death is also. The events that Baillie suggests were happening during those periods are backed up by very strong scientific data. But those aren’t the periods that Clube is talking about here. He is saying "since the Renaissance." The Renaissance, of course, followed closely on the heels of the Black Death which Baillie considers to have been a period of cometary bombardment that killed almost half of humanity! (Or so it seems from the statistics given for those areas where statistics were obtainable.) In the broadest of terms, the Renaissance covers the 200 years between 1400 and 1600, although specialists disagree on exact dates. The Black Death began in 1347/1348, 50 years earlier, so it could even be inferred that the Black Death was the gestational period for the Renaissance, or that the Renaissance occurred as a reaction to the Black Death.

Anyway, what we now see is that Victor Clube is suggesting that there was a lot more going on in our recorded history than we know about, and that the rise and fall of nations and civilizations may be closely related to what is going on out there in space! To continue:

During these epochs, broadly coinciding with the Hundred Years’ War, the Reformation, the Thirty Years’ War (including the English Civil War), the French Revolutionary Period (including the American War of Independence) and the mid-nineteenth century Revolutionary crisis in Europe [including the American Civil War], the various national authorities could do very little to restrain public anxiety in the face of the perceived danger.

Okay, we now have some specific periods where Clube, et al, believe that strange things were going on in the space around our planet. It might help us to better understand our own time period to take a look at times past.

The Hundred Years War covers the 116 year period from 1337 to 1453, the Black Death 1347/48 - 1351, and then the Renaissance: 1400 to 1600. Some really ugly stuff was going on back then! Anyway, as for the war itself, it was a conflict between France and England, over claims by the English kings to the French throne. It was punctuated by several brief and two lengthy periods of peace before it finally ended in the expulsion of the English from France, with the exception of the Calais Pale. We notice that this state of conflict was already in motion about ten years before the Black Death fell on Europe. If you were of a strong religious bent, you might even want to say that the Hand of God punished mankind for being warlike! That is probably what the people of the time thought and I suspect that this was not a favorable view for the masses to take toward their leaders.

The Hundred Years’ War was also the time of Joan of Arc who was running around hearing voices and rallying people to an apocalyptic standard.

©Unknown
Joan of Arc, Witch and Heretic

There was unbelievable devastation in France, and the end result of this war was that it helped to establish a sense of nationalism in France, ended all English claims to French territory; and made possible the emergence of centralized governing institutions and an absolute monarchy. One commentator notes:

The Hundred Years War was actually dozens of little wars and hundreds of battles and sieges that went on for over a century (1337-1453), until both sides were exhausted. While neither side won in any real sense, the end result was that while there were two kingdoms at the beginning of the war, there were two nations at the end of it.

When one studies the history of the Black Death and the Hundred Years War side by side, the thing that stands out is that whatever was going on then, there were conscienceless people taking advantage of the situation of confusion and terror. For example, we read the following:

This would be a war of devastation. Villages and crops were burned, orchards were felled, livestock seized and residents harried. On Edward’s entry into France he spent a week torching Cambrai and its environs. More than 1,000 villages were destroyed. France did what it could in England, at the war’s onset seamen ventured to the southeastern coast of England to burn and ravage there. Much plunder was taken back to England and the thought of acquiring ill-gotten gain enticed many to support the war. Ransom was another was of monetary gain and a king, nobles, knights and even citizens were taken hostage.

Cruelty abounded. After the city of Limoges was captured and burned, Edward ordered the townsmen executed. Much of Artois, Brittany, Normandy, Gascony and other provinces were reduced to desolation (circa 1355 to 1375) and France did the same to the provinces that sided with England. Walled towns were safe during the early period of the war, but churches, monasteries, villages and rural areas were ruined.

Truce and treaty were not observed. The "Free Companies" went into action, bandits of Either, English, French or hired mercenaries led by captains that dominated large areas and levied tribute on towns, villages and churches. They also seized women, took clergymen as accountants and correspondents, children for servants and plundered. ( Edward P. Cheney, (1936)The Dawn of a New Era 1250-1435)

Another source tells us:

For the first few years of the war there wasn’t much happening except English raids into France and Flanders. Then, in the 1340s, England and France took opposite sides in the long-running civil war over who should be the duke of Britanny. In 1346 this resulted in a French invasion of Gascony and the shattering French defeat at Crecy. The English then rampaged through western France, until a truce was signed in 1354 (brought on by the devastation of the Plague, which hit France heavily in 1347-48)

The truce didn’t last. In 1355, the war began again. In 1356 another major battle was fought at Poitiers and the French king was captured. English raids continued until 1360, when another truce was signed.

In addition to all the warring going on, the plague, etc, the weather was going crazy! Clube writes:

One chronicler at least reports of the most immediate cause of the plague in 1345 that "between Cathay and Persia there rained a vast rain of fire; falling in flakes like snow and burning up mountains and plains and other lands, with men and women; and then arose vast masses of smoke; and whosoever beheld this died within the space of half a day…" There seems little doubt also that a worldwide cooling of the Earth played a fundamental part in the process. The Arctic polar cap extended, changing the cyclonic pattern and leading to a series of disastrous harvests. These in turn led to widespread famine, death and social disruption.

In England and Scotland there is a pattern of abandoned villages and farms, soaring wheat prices and falling populations.

In Eastern Europe there was a series of winters of unparalleled severity and depth of snow. The chronicles of monasteries in Poland and Russia tell of cannibalism, common graves overfilled with corpses, and migrations to the west.

Even before the Black Death came, then, a human catastrophe of great proportions was under way in late medieval times. Indeed the cold snap lasted well beyond the period of the … plague. A number of such fluctuations are to be found in the historical record, and there is good evidence that these climatic stresses are connected not only with famine but also with times of great social unrest, wars, revolution and mass migrations. (Clube, The Cosmic Winter)

It sounds surprisingly like our own era, doesn’t it? There are differences in detail and scale, but the dynamics of a world gone mad, and incredible cruelty running rampant, and global climate fluctuations are the same as we see before us now.

One naturally wonders why the masses of people would put up with such a state of affairs since it was they - and not the elite - who took the brunt of the horrors. The answer then is the same as it is now. The masses of ordinary people support their leaders in war because of propaganda. During wartime, church and state generally form an alliance and patriotic statements are used in church sermons to support the ruling elite. The goal of the government is always to make the masses hate the enemy that the leaders wish to destroy (or at least to take their attention off their own depredations on the body social). In addition to the propaganda of church and state, governments will offer increased wages and new opportunities to those who fight in the war (mercenaries like Blackwater today). Criminals are often released from prison to fight. Then and now, people are promised lands, goods, benefits of all kinds, if they join the war effort. In some cases, what is offered to the common man is just to be left alone in their "normal life" and not hounded or ridiculed. All of this has been how wars have been supported since time immemorial, and nothing has changed. The lures of power and goods make people who have no conscience, or who are low on the social totem pole enthusiastic to join in killing other people just like themselves.

Calvinism was one of the developments that came out of this period. As Clube notes, the Protestant reformation was partly due to the fact that the Powers of the Time, the Catholic Church, had built their control system based on the Aristotelian system of "God is in his heaven and all will be right with the world if you are a good Christian." Obviously, they didn’t want to talk about a cosmos run amok over which their vaunted god had no control. And the fact that things were running amok and the church couldn’t do anything about it (not to mention the corruption of the church that was evident to the masses) gave ammunition to the Reformers who then were able to attract many followers just as Christianity attracted Constantine at a time when the pagan gods didn’t seem to be able to help in the face of cometary bombardment.

The Protestants thus were able to use the situation to advantage, suggesting that it was "The End of Times" and that this was all part of the plan and people would be saved if they would only come over to the Protestant side!

Of course, once the Protestants had "won their place," so to say, they, too, had to establish authority and adopt the Aristotelian view! "NOW, God is in his heaven and all will be right and there won’t be any more catastrophic disruptions as long as everybody goes to church, tithes, and obeys the appointed authoritie!"

Another bizarre thing that came out of this time period was witch persecutions. From the early decades of the fifteenth century until 1650, continental Europeans executed between two and five hundred thousand witches (according to conservative estimates), more than 85 percent of them being women. People of the time - and even later - really did believe in the reality of witchcraft and evil demons. Men like Newton, Bacon, Boyle, Locke and Hobbes, firmly believed in the reality of evil spirits and witches. As Russell said:

Tens of thousands of [witch] trials continued throughout Europe generation after generation, while Leonardo painted, Palestrina composed and Shakespeare wrote." (1977)

In order to understand this part of what was going on throughout those troublesome times, we have to back up a bit.

Witchcraft and witches have existed throughout history though in a context completely different from that which came to be understood during the crusade against witches. The Old Testament pretty much ignores the topic except to report an encounter between King Saul and the witch of Endor and to include a law: "Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live." But, other than that, in a way that seems to bizarrely contradict that law, stories of witches in the Bible are surprisingly neutral. There is no conceptualization or elaboration of witches, devils, or any kind of demonic world.

In ancient Greece and Rome, magic was used to produce rain, prevent hail storms, drive away clouds, calm the winds, make the earth bear fruit, increase wealth, cure the sick, and so on. It could also be used against one’s enemies to deprive them of those desirable effects. These beliefs were widespread in the ancient world and generally, "good magic" was lawful and necessary, and "bad magic" was condemned and punished. The state even supported those who could purportedly do "good magic." It depended on perspective whether you were a "good magician" or a "bad" one. That’s probably why the English condemned Joan of Arc for being a witch and France turned around and canonized her.

The Graeco-Roman religious universe - the supernatural world - was not divided into extreme good and extreme evil. It was occupied by every shade and combination of all qualities exactly as existed in human society. (It was only in the Judeo-Christian religion that God becomes the very image of absolute goodness and purity, and the devil was invented to be his opposite.) For the ancient world, magic was simply an attempt to harness the power of the Unseen while religion occupied itself with respect and gratitude to Nature and its representatives for results. In this way, prayers and spells could be easily combined.

The witch or sorcerer was a person who had a method - a technology - that could be used to harness and activate supernatural powers on behalf of himself or others. He could "control" the forces of nature. (At least, that is what they believed.)

So, two points are important here: 1)witchcraft/sorcery was a technology and 2) there was a definite distinction between good magic and bad magic.

This changed drastically during the fifteenth century, the time when the forces of nature ran amok, and most certainly, someone had to be blamed when it was all over! Protestantism was on the rise and it was not seen as politic to go after the Mother Church which still held a great deal of power, so some other sin-bearer had to be found. The distinction between good and bad magic vanished and witchcraft became something purely evil. The pluralistic conception of the supernatural world also vanished and we were left with only a very good god who was, however, seemingly impotent in the face of evil mankind in cahoots with a very evil devil. Well, not exactly "mankind," mostly "woman-kind"!

One of the results of this change in attitude was the creation of witchcraft as a systematic anti-religion; it became the opposite of everything that Christianity - both Catholic and Protestant - stood for. Witchcraft as an elaborated system of religion was unknown before the fifteenth century. This was a period in which a theory of supernatural demons was invented and crystallized as an explanation for the evils that fell upon mankind. How else to explain the Black Death which killed indiscriminately in spite of the prayers and supplications of the priests of the Christian church, both Catholic and Protestant?

Another point to note is that witches were no longer thought of as beings that could use a technology to control the powers of nature; they became beings that channeled evil into the world because they were under the control of the Evil One. They were all purely Satan’s puppets and no good could ever come from them. The Malleus Maleficarum specifically mentions that "witchcraft is chiefly found in women" because they are more credulous and have poor memories", and because "witchcraft comes from carnal lust, which is in women insatiable". (Sprenger and Kramer, Malleus Maleficarum, 1968, pp. 41-48)

In short, "witch myth" was created in the late 1400s in reaction to the Black Death which consisted of a whole, coherent system of beliefs, assumptions, rituals, and "sacred texts" that had never existed until this time. The Dominicans developed and popularized the conceptions of demonology and witchcraft as a negative image of the so-called "true faith" and the Protestants were just as busy!

When Kramer and Sprenger (both members of the Dominican Order and Inquisitors for the Catholic Church) wrote the Malleus Maleficarum and submitted it to the University of Cologne’s Faculty of Theology on May 9, 1487, seeking its endorsement, it was roundly condemned as unethical and illegal. The Catholic Church banned the book in 1490, placing it on the Index Librorum Prohibitorum. In order to understand why, again we have to back up a bit.

After the disintegration of the Roman Empire and the rise of Christianity, many missionaries, on finding that the pagans had their own spectrum of local deities and beliefs, often sought to convert them by the simple expedient of canonizing the local gods so that the natives population could continue to worship them under the aegis of Christianity. They became "Christian saints" complete with invented hagiographies. The old temples were converted into churches so that the pagans would come to familiar places of worship to hear mass and pray to their "saints" just like always. Magical practices were tolerated because it was felt that the people would give them up naturally over time once they had become truly Christian.

Official church policy held that any belief in witchcraft was an illusion. In the famous, but mysterious, Canon episcopi, we read:

Some wicked women, perverted by the devil, seduced by illusions and phantasms of demons, believe and profess themselves in the hours of night, to ride upon certain beastes with Diana, the goddess of pagans, and an innumerable multitude of women, and in the silence of the dead of night to traverse great spaces of earth, and to obey her commands as of their mistress, and to be summoned to her service on certain nights. But I wish it were they alone who perished in their faithlessness and did not draw many with them into the destruction of infidelity. For an innumerable multitude, deceived by this false opinion, believe this to be true, and so believing, wander from the right faith and are invalued in the error of the pagans…

Wherefore the priests throughout their churches should preach with all insistence … that they know this to be false and, that such phantasms are imposed and sent by the malignant spirit… who deludes them in dreams…

Who is there who is not led out of himself in dreams, seeing such in sleeping which he never sees [when] waking? …

And who is so stupid and foolish as to think that all these things, which are only done in spirit happen in the body?

It is therefore to be proclaimed publicly to all that whoever believes such things… has lost his faith.

(Translated by Kors and Peters, pp. 29-31. The origin of this document is not clear. Kors and Peters (1972) date it to 1140. It has been attributed to an obscure meeting, the Council of Anquira, held possibly in the 4th century. Although there is no record of this council, the statement on witchcraft was adopted by later canonists as official policy.)

So, for more than six centuries, this was the official attitude of the church toward witches - that it was an illusion or delusion or just the product of dreams. It was even declared:

"Whoever was ’so stupid and foolish’ as to believe such fantastic tales was an infidel."

In 1450, 100 years after the Black Death had destroyed about half of Europe’s population, the Hundred Years’ War was coming to an end and someone had to be blamed, (definitely NOT cometary explosions!), and the so-called Renaissance was kicking off, Jean Vineti, Inquisitor at Carcassone, identified witchcraft with heresy. In 1458, Nicholas Jacquier, Inquisitor in France and Bohemia, identified it as a NEW form of heresy. When Jacquier wrote his book on witchcraft, he had to dispose of the Canon episcopi first. Other writers of the time also found it necessary to diminish this official church policy in order to even have a "witch craze." So, the first attacks were made on the validity of the document itself. Then, contemporary witches were claimed to be different from the ones that the document was about. In 1460, Visconti Girolamo, Inquisitor professor, Provincial of Lombardy, stated that the act of defending witchcraft (or witches) was itself heresy. In 1484-86, Sprenger and Kramer published the Malleus which explicated a crystallized theory of witchcraft which held sway for three hundred years. Johannes Gutenberg’s printing press - a product of the Renaissance - allowed the work to spread rapidly throughout Europe. This crystallization is what resulted in the beginning of the witch craze itself.

Again, we note that the most spectacular "witch" was Joan of Arc who was tried, condemned, and burned in 1431, three years before Europe’s mass panic over witches started in Valais where over 100 people were tried by secular judges - not religious - for "murder by sorcery." As the craze spread over Europe, literally hundreds of thousands of women were burned at the stake. Children, women, and even whole families were sent to be burned. The historical sources are full of horrifying descriptions of the tortures these poor people were subjected to. Entire villages were exterminated. One account says that all of Germany was covered with stakes and Germans were entirely occupied with building bonfires to burn the victims. One inquisitor is reported to have said: "I wish [the witches] had but one body, so that we could burn them all at once, in one fire!" (Trevor-Roper 1967, p. 152).

In the 1580s, the Catholic Counter-Reformation became dedicated witch hunters, going after Protestants, mainly. In France, most witches happened to be Huguenot. There were many cases of "political" executions in the guise of witch burnings. One victim was a judge who was burned in 1628 for showing "suspicious leniency". As the craze spread, the viciousness and barbarity of the attacks increased. The judge just mentioned, a Dr. Haan, under torture, confessed to having seen five burgomasters of Bamberg at the witches Sabbath, and they, too were executed. One of them, a Johannes Julius, under torture, confessed that he had renounced God, given himself to the devil, and seen twenty-seven of his colleagues at the Sabbath. But afterward, from prison, he contrived to smuggle a letter out to his daughter, Veronica, giving a full account of his trial. He wrote:

"Now my dearest child, you have here all my acts and confessions, for which I must die. It is all falsehood and invention, so help me God… They never cease to torture until one says something. If God sends no means of briging the truth to light our whole kindred will be burnt." (Trevor-Roper 1967, p. 157)

Protestants and Catholics accused each other and the early decades of the 1600s were infected by a veritable epidemic of demons! This lasted until the end of the Thirty Years’ War. It is said that if the publication of the Malleus Maleficarum was the beginning of the terror, the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 was the end. In recent times, the Malleus has been examined critically, though not by individuals with any awareness of the cosmic events of the time. Nevertheless, what they have observed has a bearing on our subject here: Sexy Devils

One evening 10 years ago, Walter Stephens was reading Malleus malificarum. The Malleus, as scholars refer to it, would not be everyone’s choice for a late-night book. Usually translated as The Hammer of Witches, it was first published in Germany in 1487 as a handbook for witch hunters during the Inquisition. It’s a chilling text - - used for 300 years, well into the Age of Reason — that justifies and details the identification, apprehension, interrogation, and execution of people accused of consorting with demons, signing pacts with the devil, and performing maleficia, or harmful magic.

"It was 11 at night," Stephens recalls. "My wife had gone to bed, and on the first page [of the Malleus] was this weird sentence about people who don’t believe in witches and don’t believe in demons: ‘Therefore those err who say that there is no such thing as witchcraft, but that it is purely imaginary, even although they do not believe that devils exist except in the imagination of the ignorant and vulgar, and the natural accidents which happen to man he wrongly attributes to some supposed devil.’"

That convoluted sentence dovetailed with a curious line Stephens knew from Il messaggiero, a work from 1582 by the Italian poet Torquato Tasso: "If magicians and witches and the possessed exist, demons exist; but it cannot be doubted that in every age specimens of the former three have been found: thus it is unreasonable to doubt that demons are found in nature."

Stephens, the Charles S. Singleton Professor of Italian Studies in the Hopkins department of romance languages, is a literary critic, and he sensed that something intriguing was going on beneath the text on the page. Tasso, and especially the Malleus’ author, a Dominican theologian and inquisitor named Heinrich Kramer, had in their works invested a striking amount of energy in refuting doubt about the existence of demons. What was that about?

For the next eight years Stephens read every treatise he could find on witchcraft, as well as accounts of interrogations, theological tracts, and other works (his bibliography lists 154 primary and more than 200 secondary sources). Most of the 86 witchcraft treatises he cites had been written in western Europe in the 15th, 16th, and 17th centuries, and one after another (including the Malleus) contain accounts of sexual intercourse with satanic spirits. Why? Were the authors remorseless misogynists hellbent on portraying women in the worst possible light? Were they lurid, repressed celibates who got off by writing accounts of demon sex? Stephens didn’t think so; the texts, in his view, didn’t support that reading. Elsewhere in the Malleus he had found a key reference to accused witches under torture as being "expert witnesses to the reality of carnal interaction between humans and demons." These guys are trying to construct proofs that demons exist, he thought. They’re trying to convince skeptics. And then he thought, They’re trying to convince themselves.

Stephens’ thesis profoundly revises the conventional wisdom about centuries of cruelty and injustice. The great European witch hunts, he says, were the outgrowth of a severe crisis of faith. The men who wrote books like the Malleus, men who endorsed the torture and burning of tens of thousands of innocent people, desperately needed to believe in witches, because if witches were real, then demons were real, and if demons were real, then God was real. Not just real but present and attentive. Carefully read the works composed by the witchcraft authors, Stephens says, and you will see how profoundly disturbed these educated, literate men were by their accumulating suspicions that if God existed at all, He wasn’t paying much attention to the descendants of Adam. […]

The sanctioned, organized pursuit and persecution of witches, which peaked from 1560 to 1630 and was almost entirely a western European phenomenon, began during a time of grave concern in the Roman Catholic church. The European world in the early 1400s was a wreck. The preceding century has been labeled by historian Barbara Tuchman as "calamitous," and she does not overstate. Starting around 1315, a great famine ravaged much of western Europe. From 1347 to 1352, the Black Death killed more than a third of the continent’s population. Other diseases and additional outbreaks of the plague scourged the weakened survivors. As if natural catastrophe weren’t enough, England and France chose to fight the Hundred Years’ War from 1337 to 1453, the longest war in history. The Church itself fractured, riven by massive organized heresies, and by a schism that led to as many as three men simultaneously laying claim to be the true pope. How could a world created by a watchful, benevolent, and engaged God be such a mess?

Indeed. The calamities of that time - of ANY time - assault religious faith. And anyone who talks about such calamities in a reasonable and factual way as just what Nature does, and who back it up with scientific data, MUST be silenced because they threaten the very foundation of Western Civilization: Christianity and Uniformitarianism and Fascist control of humanity!

It seems that such persecutions may very well have been initiated as a way of controlling those who uttered "heresies" against the "providential" order of the universe established by the Church and State, like pointing out that an increased number of fireballs and comet sightings may very well suggest that the planet and its inhabitants are in potential danger. This was the period of Galileo, after all, and he was accused of being a "heretic" for not supporting the potency of God Almighty. Nowadays, that’s the same as being accused of being a "cult". We notice, also, as mentioned above, that the Church is regressing into the same mindset that held sway during other "eschatological" periods.

What strikes me as particularly funny is the way the US school of Asteroid Impacts is going about this. Apparently, under the influence of the British school of cometary bombardment, they are thinking about all of these things. It also seems highly likely that the entire War on Terror is a distraction from what is really going on "out there." Anyway, from a recent conference: AIAA 2007 Planetary Defense Conference we note what is agitating them most:

An asteroid impact could occur anywhere on the globe at any time, so planetary defense has implications for all humankind. All nations on Earth should be prepared for this potential calamity and work together to prevent or contain the damage. That said, there is currently very little discussion or coordination of efforts at national or international levels. No single agency in any country has responsibility for moving forward on NEO deflection, and disaster control agencies have not simulated this type of disaster.

Providing funding over the long term was also seen as a challenge. Much of the work in virtually all areas of planetary defense has been done on individuals’ own time and initiative. There is a need for ongoing studies and peer-reviewed papers to improve our knowledge in this area, as well as to increase the credibility of the issue and the public’s trust in our ability to respond. The reality is that NEO deflection or disaster mitigation efforts may not be required for decades or longer, so governments, which are focused on more immediate concerns, may not be willing to commit sufficient recourses to this type of work. Determining the appropriate level of this work and funding such activities over the long term is seen as a major issue.

In addition, major legal and policy issues related to planetary defense need to be resolved. An example is liability for predictions that prove false or deflection missions that only partially work or fail completely, resulting in an impact. Other examples include:

· A prediction is made that an impact may occur in a specific area, and residents and businesses that might be affected leave. Are there liabilities associated with the loss in property values if the prediction is wrong?

· A nation makes a deflection attempt, but it fails to change the object’s orbit enough to miss Earth. Is that nation now responsible for the damage inflicted?

· A NEO threat demands the nuclear option, but public perception is that the possibility of a launch failure and subsequent damage is more acute than the threat from the NEO. What are the liabilities and political and policy implications associated with a launch failure during a deflection mission?

These types of issues should be discussed and resolved before they are raised by a serious threat.

Yup, that’s what they are worried about! Legal liability!

Amazing.

Well, anyway, at the end of the Hundred Years War and the Black Death, the Witch Persecutions were utilized to hush up completely any hint that the Earth was not securely hung in space, and history and truth was suppressed with blood and burning human flesh.

UncategorizedJanuary 16, 2008 1:10 am

Having just finished reading this paper, and thinking that it is well worth converting to text and getting a wider audience, I spent the last few hours on it and will post it here so that it doesn’t "disappear" from any one place, though it is uploaded to the SOTT database. Parts of it are a bit rough, but it is well worth the trouble of reading it all the way through - maybe more than once - and giving a lot of thought to the implications of what he writes there especially in regard to any group of people who are trying to dig out this kind of information and present it to the public. Clube makes it abundantly clear why this must be considered a revolutionary activity!

  S.V.M. Clube

Vistas in Astronomy Vol. 39, pp. 673-698 1995

 

Abstract: Mankind’s essentially untroubled state of mind in the presence of comets during the last two centuries has been fortified by the overall relative brevity of cometary apparitions and the calculated infrequency of cometary encounters with planets.

During the course of the Space Age, however, the fact of cometary splitting has also become increasingly secure and there is growing appreciation of the fact that mankind’s state of mind can never be altogether relaxed. Indeed a watershed in the modern perception of cometary facts has evidently been reached with the most recent and devastating example of cometary splitting, that of the fragmen­tation of Comet P/Shoemaker-Levy 9 and its subsequent bombardment of planet Jupiter.

Thus there is a recognized tendency now amongst comets, especially those in short-period orbits, due to the occasionally excessive effects of solar irradia­tion, planetary tides and small body impacts, which gives rise to individual swarms of cometary debris, and it is the resulting repeated penetration of such dispersed swarms by our planet which apparently increases the danger to mankind from time to time.

The danger comprises global coolings, atmospheric pollution and super-Tunguska events, the cometary debris being responsible for both high-level dust insertions and low-level multimegaton explosions in the Earth’s atmosphere along with a generally enhanced fireball flux.

Historically, the presence of such danger was drawn to mankind’s attention by the observed bombardments over several decades due to "blazing stars threatening the world with famine, plague and war; to princes death; to kingdoms many curses; to all estates many losses; to herdsmen rot; to ploughmen hapless seasons; to sailors storms; to cities civil treasons."

The sense of cosmic destiny aroused by these bombardments evidently involved degrees of fatalism and public anxiety which were deplored by both eccle­siastical authorities and secular administrations with the result that acknowledged dispensers of prognosis and mitigation who endorsed the adverse implications of ‘blazing stars’ (astrologers, soothsayers etc.) were commonly impugned and cen­sured.

Nowadays, of course, we are able to recognise that the Earth’s environment is not only one of essentially uniformitarian calm, as formerly assumed, but one that is also interrupted by ‘punctuational crises’, each crisis being the sequence of events which arises due to the fragmentation of an individual comet whose orbit intersects the Earth’s. That even modest crises can arouse apprehension is known through the circumstances of the nineteenth century break-up of Comet Biela.

Indeed it seems that these crises are rather frequently characterized by relatively violent (paradigm shifting) transmutations of human society such as were originally proposed by Spengler and Toynbee more than sixty years ago on the basis of historical analysis alone.

It would appear, then, that the historical fear of comets which has been with us since the foundation of civilization, far from be­ing the reflection of an astrological perception of the cosmos which was deranged and therefore abandoned, has a perfectly rational basis in occasional cometary fragmentation events. Such events recur and evidently have quite serious impli­cations for society and government today.

Thus when cosmic danger returns and there is growing awareness of the fact, we find that society is capable of becoming uncontrollably convulsed as ‘enlightenment’ spreads. A revival of millenarian ex­pectations under these circumstances, for example, is not so much an underlying consequence but a deviant manifestation of the violent turmoil into which society falls, often to revolutionary effect.

I. INSPIRATION AND FOREBODING

Today science is more or less unquestioned as the primary body of systematic knowledge reaching us through observation and measurement. However, by making too much of the more passive aspects of this body of knowledge, i.e. its reproducibility through repeated accurate measurement, it is possible to undervalue the significance of its more active aspects, i.e. the inductive insights or connecting links which ultimately give the overall system of knowledge its intrinsic strength.

Scientists, of course, are aware of these countervailing tendencies and while recognising the care, patience and technical skill that are necessary to sustain the reproducibility of systematic knowledge, they do also draw attention to the need for a state of mind in research which brings its practitioners to the point of insight and enlightenment.

Thus a picture for the overall development of knowledge seems now to have emerged in which the network of connections between supposed islands of knowledge may be discontinuously and abruptly rearranged as the islands themselves continuously grow and dissolve. Admittedly any precise description of these discontinuities remains somewhat elusive (Kuhn, 1962 cf. Lindberg, 1992) but there is no lack of archetypes such as Archimedes and his well known cry of Eureka! from the bath as he pondered the problem of the specific gravity of gold.

Our ancestors indeed, who undoubtedly recognised the importance of this not so very subtle aspect of the acquisition of knowledge, would tend to describe an enchanted state of mind which from the very earliest times was believed to have been brought on through the wiles and trickery of a serpent. In fact, a modern dictionary still tells us that to be fascinated, the prerequisite to knowledge, is to be deprived of the power to resist or to escape by the look or presence of a tormentor, possibly a serpent. A mythologist would have little difficulty with such etymology: thus it was the original all-pervading chaos associated with the primeval (cosmic) serpent, whatever this may have been, which served as the principal exemplar down the ages of the turmoil out of which desperate new connections were once forged and which was accepted as naturally illustrating the critical path by which new scientific (mostly astronomical) knowledge was obtained.

In other words, the insights leading to true knowledge have long been thought of as being brought to human attention by some kind of mesmerising process or cunning on the part of nature. That is, we observe natural phenomena as to whose cause we wonder and by whose effect we are astonished. And it is through the perceived enlightenment that comes by joining such cause and effect that a fascination in, say, astronomical phenomena is believed to broaden our cosmic experience and thereby enrich our cultural heritage.

We may be fascinated of course in the sense of being enraptured and heartened, in which case we are in the habit of accepting the cosmic realm as a source of inspiration and our culture as both soothing and ennobling. However, we may also be fascinated in the sense of being agitated and petrified, in which case it can also be that the cosmic realm is a source of foreboding and our culture is both disturbing and intoxicating.

Of the essence here is the injustice to our past if we look back on the sum total of mankind’s cosmic experience and fail to recognize how this has ennobled our culture. But equally, there is the unfairness to our future if we look back on this experience and fail to appreciate how it has also overwhelmed our culture from time to time, e.g. through our response to the intermittent incidence of celestial ’signs’. The mistake in fact is to suppose that inspiration and foreboding are uniformitarian and arise in equal measure at all times, rather we should be aware of the possibility of a temporal sequence in the balance of inspiration and foreboding; and of the timescale of variation from one extreme to the other which is tantalizingly beyond the usual reach of direct individual experience. That is, for long periods of time on Earth, generations can follow generations under the impression that our cosmic environment is a continuous source of inspiration only to be succeeded for a while by generations aware of the fact that our cosmic environment can also be an intense source of foreboding.

The point to be noted then is that there are positive and negative, both light and dark, sides to the inspiration provided by astronomical phenomena in the past; and we seriously misunderstand human history if we suppose our celestial environment never impinges adversely upon the Earth.

Quite simply, the enlightened or supposedly uniformitarian view of nature these last two hundred years has diverted attention from adverse celestial inputs and there is now a serious risk, especially from within the fastness of an ivory tower, that inspiration’s commonest inducement, the appeal to a sublime principle, will continue to press our cosmic perspective and our cultural endeavour towards some kind of paradisical extreme.

To achieve some kind of balance of course, it is probably necessary to come down from the fastness of the ivory tower and to join the maelstrom in the courtyard below for it is only through grim human contact, it seems, that we are more able to contemplate the punctuational crises which continually threaten and sometimes afflict civilization. There will be optimists, to be sure, who will trivialize such crises and regard such balance as imbalance but, as a well-known yet typical mentor of the last century (Proctor, 1875) once quoted, when troubles were about to befall men, "nation rising against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, with great earthquakes in divers places, and famines, and pestilences, and fearful sights", then "great signs shall there be from heaven".

The point Proctor makes of course is that our cosmic experience has always had both its paradisical and its purgatorial aspects and it is mostly when the latter are in the ascendancy that our cosmic experience rouses us from the opium of culture and plunges us into the politics of despair. Thus it could be a twentieth century indulgence to suppose despondency under uniformitarian conditions cannot be further plumbed for such could be as nothing compared to the depths of despair which have come with the most significant cosmic events during recent millennia.

In this essay, we shall begin with a ‘journalistic’ perspective on the contemporary politics of punctuational crises and then move on to evaluate the cosmic perspective which now seems to be forced upon us. We shall come to recognize that the great signs from heaven were never primarily the eclipses and random comets which we hang on our supposedly ignorant ancestors, rather they were the fireball flux surges whose nature remains as problematical for us as it was for them.

2. COMETS BY JOVE - A WARNING TO THE PRESIDENT’S MEN?

The unprecedented events on Jupiter during the summer of 1994 served to quicken the pace of developments in space. There was clearly something awesome in those predicted encounters of comet pieces with a planet which, had they occurred on Earth, would have resulted in a mass extinction. Very few could have failed to be moved by the prospect that future comet splittings might suddenly produce a similar impact hazard heading towards the Earth which mankind would be unable to avoid.

©S.V.M. Clube
This graph summarizes the flux of large meteors (variously known as ‘blazing stars’, ‘providences’ or ‘fireballs’) during the period 100 BC- 1900 AD as recorded by Chinese imperial astrologers. Note the occasional large surges lasting from decades to centuries indicative of highly entrained cometary/asteroidal debris (a. la Shoemaker-Levy!) in orbit around the Sun and, hence, an increased likelihood of multi- megaton events. While the fear of ‘last times’ associated with these surges is demonstrably a significant eschatological force, dictating the course of history to a greater extent than is now commonly perceived, (note the surges at the time of Christ and during the European Dark Age), it seems that the events were essentially spurned during the aftermaths of the seventeenth and eighteenth century surges, coinciding with the English and American Enlightenments, respectively. Also, by integrating large meteors according to month and century, (graph not shown) we note that the surges largely take place during the months of July - August and October - November, indicative of a single broad stream (the Taurids) in which most of the observed fragmentations occur. It seems likely that the fear of ‘last times’ is a long-standing historical problem associated with the disintegration of a single large comet originally at the core of the Taurid stream.

Inevitably, so it seemed, there was an added sense of common purpose to mankind’s contin­uing watch on space. Such a sense of purpose in ’spacewatching’ has frequently arisen in the past usually in a national context, and can he traced back to the very dawn of civilization: one thinks for example of the Sumerians (e.g. Frankfort et al., 1946), then later the Chinese (e.g. Schafer, 1977) and eventually perhaps the Aztecs (e.g. Sejourne, 1957), all of whom are known to have confronted the cosmos at different epochs for many generations with the same air of realism and foreboding.

Nowadays, of course, it is the American nation which bears the brunt of this watch and ensures that the responsibility is taken seriously. As recently as 1990 for example, Congress was pressing space agencies for an assessment of the impact risk to civi­lization. Congress however did not count on inertia within the scientific corpus giving rise to a characteristically sanguine interpretation of the brief. Thus there is a kind of mindset afflicting those who put order into the cosmos which also causes them to resent disorderly intrusions. Disintegrating comets which suddenly appear in the Solar System are of this nature and the reaction which is by way of turning a blind eye to unwelcome visitations can often mean that the common purpose is blunted. Those who would have turned us away from Galileo’s tele­scope so many centuries ago were still able to turn us away from the unprecedented events on Jupiter during the summer of 1994!

Even as the comet pieces arrived though there was movement within the corridors of power to revitalize the body scientific. Thus the US Congress or, more specifically, its House Com­mittee on Science, Space and Technology was evidently impelled to recommend an immediate stepping up of the Spaceguard program - NASA’s pipeline project to assess the asteroid and comet threat to civilisation from space.

Reflecting what appeared to be a public pressure on dilatory space guardians the Committee’s Chairman Representative George Brown, was to
comment to the New York Times (Aug 1, 1994) that "you’re going to see this thing take off like a rocket. It’s going to be easy to sell in Congress".

Later, of course, the excitement receded and we reached a period of more measured reflection. There was then a question mark over NASA’s failure to anticipate cometary splittings and a degree of concern whether this organisation’s activities should have been oriented so exclusively to single body events. The latter in fact are rare; and to the extent that the currently nominated space guardians may also have had it in mind to exploit asteroids and comets as the largest accessible resource in space, one could readily suppose that the more frequent hazard due to the more numerous debris from cometary splittings had been seriously overlooked.

However, in making its more measured judgement, it was more or less inevitable that the House Committee would reckon in terms of balancing all of NASA’s previously approved and currently perceived requirements. This essentially meant a watering down of the more immediate celestial threat. The question for Congress still remained therefore whether Spaceguard provided everything that the American public expected.

To understand what is going on here, we need to examine some of the Spaceguard programme (Morrison, 1992) details which have been tucked away in the fine print. Thus the Spaceguard Catalogue, when it is completed, will be over 90% asteroids. But some of these asteroids will be dormant or dead comets - and herein lies the catch. For, during the next century, the probability of the pure asteroid threat to civilization being realized is only about one in a thousand. Whereas the probability of the dead, dormant or active comet threat be­ing realized during the same period - due to cometary splitting - is more in the region of certainty.

The asteroid threat by itself therefore is not of the kind that will give Congressmen sleepless nights; the comet threat on the other hand could well be of the kind that is a cause of public concern.

The point is that there are crucial physical differences between pure asteroids and comets which are a significant factor when we calculate their respective threats.

Basically, for the asteroid threat to be realised, we need a direct hit on our planet - truly a rare event. For the comet threat to be realised however, given that these objects break up and the debris sprays out around the parent orbit, we need only a relatively close encounter to have some fraction of the original material impact the Earth - a reduced input of mass evidently but impacts nevertheless which are altogether more frequent and by no means negligible in their effect.

The Catalogue then is not the only problem; we need also to consider when comets are going to fragment. Indeed with the benefit of hindsight on the comets by Jove, the situation for the President is now very clear. He may be provided with a map of the world but that does not tell him where and when the next Rwanda is going to arise. Likewise, he may be provided with a catalogue of asteroids and comets in their various orbits but that does not tell him where and when the next earthbound Shoemaker-Levy is going to arise!

There is a very definite sense therefore in which the current NASA plan is deficient in relation to the civilization hazard from space and lulls the American public into a false sense of security. One has to recognize of course that astronomers are trained not to cry wolf in the night and it is a matter of normal common sense that the paymaster is most comfortable if the catalogue on offer appears to provide enough warning whilst keeping down the cost. Unfortunately, this kind of bashful timidity and mutual backscratching amongst scientists and moneyspinners currently results in our not having a policy to deal with the most probable hazard from space, a situation which seems to provide the American public with rather less than it expects!

For what then should we prepare?

First, of course, there is no point in denying the usefulness of Spaceguard for the ferocity of the asteroid threat, when it is realised, is not in doubt - mankind could well be extinguished. It does not follow however that the more frequent cometary threat can therefore be ignored on account of the greater modesty of its effects - for, in this case, it is also worth noting that mankind could well not be extinguished!

Thus governments are not merely confronted with a general fear of global extinction but with that of localized extinctions, or holocausts, as well. In other words, we really need to know about the troubles that arise during the anticipation and the aftermath of any multimegaton events that occur in the wake of a fractured comet (see Section 3.3). These, as we have noted, occur at intervals of a couple of centuries or so and at the very least now we have to consider the possibility of one or more population wipe-outs or Chernobyl-like disasters on the urban to large nation scale, or a mini-ice age of global proportions.

Less frequently, at intervals of a millennium or so, we can expect the incidence of such disasters to be substantially increased.

Obviously these are tantalizing rates for heads of state who feel that there may be a risk and that to be forewarned is to be forearmed. But invariably, so it appears, the general tendency is to discount the risk with the result that civilization and society are usually unprepared. Thus, just as fifteenth and seventeenth century European society apparently broke down in the presence of newly fragmented comets, so it appears the emerging global village of our present epoch could well break down in the presence of yet another newly fragmented comet.

What matters here is the extent to which society is convinced by contemporary ‘experts’ that the danger is real.

For example, the breakdowns during the centuries preceding Reformation and Enlightenment occurred as apparent historical certainties concerning the incidence of ‘providences’ or ‘blazing stars’ were newly translated into the vernacular (i.e. from the Books of Daniel and Revelation) and propagated uncensored from the pulpit (e.g. Thomas, 1971). In the future, it is more likely to be the deeper historical certainties which are gained from the latest scientific understandings of our astronomical past and which are then propagated uncensored through a modern communications network of even greater power!

The problem always with these hazards, like the occasional snowstorm over England, is their rarity - the fact that pragmatic authorities will at present only handle them in accordance with circumstances, as they arise. This wholly reactive mode means that the comet threat is never going to be taken seriously until such post-detection panic as will occur due to the incoming cometary debris is fully recognized for what it may very well be.

Paradoxically though, the more skilled and informed the civilization, the sooner in general the reality is appreciated and the greater the opportunity there is for the subordinate and more reliant elements of society to become seriously unsettled.

Mankind is not extinguished of course and many parts of the globe may even escape physical blemish, but it is a matter of general experience, overlooked apparently by the American scientific community, that sustained public panic is a very effective leveller of civilizations, even to the extent that many societies are capable of becoming seriously unhinged.

Thus it is not obvious that even the most advanced societies will avoid social chaos without the most careful preparation in advance to counter the illusion of ‘last times’.

In the past, it has always fallen to individual nations and their administrations to attempt to deal with the illusion through counter-propaganda. In the future it seems more likely that it will fall to the global village to attempt to deal with the illusion through counter-propaganda and it is by no means clear that any preparations are yet in place.

History is more informative in respect of this problem than many might suppose. Even the word ‘revolution’ for example, in its more general usage today, seems to have acquired its meaning in the past through the recognized effects of the orbiting debris of a comet! Thus it is generally accepted that its connotation signifying social upheaval was a sixteenth and seventeenth century development arising out of its earlier (Copernican) connotation signify­ing physical circulation. However it is perhaps not so widely appreciated that the witchhunts and political upheavals of the seventeenth century in England - which modern authorities sometimes look upon as archetypal in respect of the circumstances which generally give rise to revolution - were directly attributed by contemporaries to the unsettling effects of an (ob­served) celestial circulation: these contemporaries speak of celestial signs which were deliver­ies of "God’s providence" and which were evidently mediated by "God’s revolution".

Indeed these types of attribution, once the signs had passed, were very soon to mean that the blazing stars were scorned by the learned: Bishop Sprat (ed. Cope and Jones, 1959) in his History of the Royal Society speaks of a peculiar weakness on the part of his countrymen, to supposed prodigies and providences, which was now no longer to be encouraged. Thus the demise of the London Society of Astrologers broadly coincided with the transition from Interregnum to Restoration and the emergence of the Royal Society of London; and, it is apparent, also to a period of intense scientific censorship (Hill, 1975).

It is well known for example that very few of Newton’s historical researches into catastrophism and the role of comets and fireballs were published in his time with the result that astronomical science, and hence natural philosophy, tended thereafter to assume uniformitarian (i.e. non-catastrophic) characteristics.

Neverthe­less, we can now tell from past astronomical records when civilization was apparently unhinged by threatening signs in the sky (see Section 4.1) and it is clear that the cometary threat, on the point of being realised, is far from being a trivial occasion - our ancestors were not joking, it seems, when they saw disintegrating comets as "a warning to kings".

Even the President’s men therefore may need a degree of authority and understanding in the face of incoming cometary material such as the age of ‘enlightenment’ has so far failed to provide.

The point here, of course, is that modern society, like its founding fathers, chooses still to ridicule the cometary threat. Ridicule was necessary perhaps as the means to a particular end - the restoration of civil order - in the wake of a previous cometary fracture and its chaotic aftermath. But this end was essentially realized and it may well be now that western civilization requires an attitude to these events in future which is a good deal more subtle than the official American approach currently allows.

There are new understandings of our environment, then, to be taken on board. Thus the last millennium or so tells clearly enough of a Western European civilization which eventually took over the New World but which was also oppressed by cosmic inputs considerably more than most of us have been given to believe.

It also tells of a civilization driven to such extremes by these external pressures that the subordinate and more reliable elements of society could only seek their freedom by aimless uprising while others with the means and some sense of purpose sought their freedom by escaping their environment.

Viewed negatively on the one hand, the cosmic inputs are an unbearable overpressure which society characteristically fails to resist and which has a roughly one in four human lifetime chance of recurring; viewed positively on the other hand, the same inputs are the cause of ‘punctuational crises’ which are also the principal opportunity for civilization to step out of its mold.

Each new search for civil order in the wake of oppression and chaos has proved to be an added spur to civilization’s advance and a likely paradigm shift.

Something of the right note here may be struck by Trevor-Roper (1987) when he tells us, albeit without any reference to an increased fireball flux, how "

… in Germany, the ideas of Paracelsus were combined with [ ] metaphysical speculations: how there too a new era of enlightenment was expected to follow the return of a chemical prophet, ‘Elias Artista’, who would make all things new; and how the beginnings of the Thirty Years War were seen as the ’shakings’ which would precede the fall of Antichrist and, as it were, light the fuse for the great eschatological explosion. That did not work out according to plan; but in 1640, when a new series of ’shakings’ began in England, hope was rekindled. The English Puritan Revolution, which we see as a purely national struggle, appeared to many European Protestants as an event of international significance, the second stage of the Bohemian Revolution of 1618. So messianic expectations were renewed and central European enthusiasts looked, and sometimes came, to an England which, they hoped, having reclaimed its historic role, would realise the Bohemian promise of enlightenment as the prelude to the millennium.

Trevor-Roper goes on to point out that many of the time were indeed responding to the same intellectual challenge. For at one extreme of the Reformation-Counter Reformation debate we find an anticipated messianic return: that of the likes of ‘Elias Artista’, essentially the late medieval rendering of neo-Platonism’s cosmic demi-urge, for which such as Bruno would go to the stake; whereas at the other extreme of the debate, we find a desire for permanence and stability: an establishment set against any Pyrrhonist (catastrophist) perception and determined at all costs to preserve for Christendom its basic (Aristotelian) cosmic theme. It seems though that "none of them produced a final answer. But in the convulsion of their time the old compromise was destroyed, or at least emptied of its real content, and all of them, out of its relics, incidentally contributed something to the succeeding age…"

In other words, there is a perspective on the historical process which now tells us that the Renaissance needed its Inquisition to preserve the perceived cosmic order and suppress the omens which the astrological view of nature nevertheless allowed.

Likewise the English Enlightenment needed its official ridicule to counter the cometary threat which the scientific view of nature essentially allowed.

But now, with space tentatively explored, the public has learned that neither the Inquisition nor official ridicule will impede future cosmic inputs.

The US Congress no doubt will decide how these inputs will be challenged - but if realism is to prevail, and ridicule no longer works, the new understandings of our cosmic environment will impose their new discipline on society as well!

In short, society still has to come to terms with the seriousness and comparative urgency of the cosmic threat and to recognise the need for an enabling contract between mankind and its leaders which guarantees both the discipline and the challenge.

©S.V.M. Clube
Fig. 2. A broadsheet issued from Augsburg on the occasion of the 1521 comet, as illustrated in the upper right hand frame of the montage. Note the anticipated seismic effects due to cometary debris, as illustrated in the upper left hand frame, typical of the perceived nature of
‘last times’ and low-level multimegaton explosions. The lower frame is of particular interest in that it gives expression to the common general response on the part of ecclesiastical authorities and secular administrations to the activities of those who dispensed prognostication and the mitigation of fear in the presence of celestial signs (astrologers, soothsayers, witches etc.). The encitement of unrest in society through over-zealous attention to ‘last times’ was clearly a serious problem so far as our ancestors were concerned, one that remains to be tested in modern times!

If history is a guide, the necessity of preventative action will of course be ignored! Thus the situation is by no means new and has occurred many times before (Cohn, 1957; 1993). Recent studies have probably given us a pretty good idea how societies respond in extreme circumstances and, to encapsulate these, we can do worse than go back to the beginnings of western civilization itself. For it is here that we find how the Roman Empire became aware of and confronted the cosmic threat during its fourth and fifth century decline, essentially realising that neither Stoics nor Epicureans had any answer to the intense public anxiety which then emerged.

Thus, it came about, so it now appears, that a whole subjugated people extending from the Eastern Mediterranean to Western Europe rather suddenly succumbed to the blandishments of a Christian community (Brown, 1971) which promulgated the notion that one could escape the torment of "demons" by electing to "belong" to an everlasting (cosmic) community of "saints". By associating these demons and saints with members of the human population as well as with clashing celestial armies and hence with an observed circulation in the sky (Section 3.5), it seems that this Christian notion had its basis in verifiable cosmic facts which had been endorsed by neo-Platonists such as Proclus and Augustine.

The point here is that a basic classical view of the Universe, originating with the pre-Socratics and given its most perfect expression in Plato’s Timaeus, reached its zenith with the neo-Platonists. Plato and the neo-Platonists described how a divine agency, the demi-urge, had constructed the main features of the visible heavens: a planetary system in the plane of the ecliptic which probably included the Earth in orbit around the Sun and another divine circulation inclined to the ecliptic which not only intersected the path of the Earth but supposedly reached out beyond the sphere of stars. It was this circulation apparently, with the characteristics of elliptical motion and precessing nodes, which returned to the Earth at long intervals with catastrophic consequences. However the more cultivated and sophisticated elements of Roman society were not at first prepared to go along with this expectation. Rather both secular and ecclesiastical opinion discounted the demi-urge and held to an (Aristotelian) perception of the environment which presupposed some degree of permanence and stability in the cosmos at hand.

Before enduring the Dark Age however, the Roman Empire was to be horrified by the imprint of "deserted areas" which contemporary opinion closely associated with the imminent arrival of world-end (Esmonde Cleary, 1989). Such devastation now seems to have the character of super-Tunguska events; and, indeed, one such putative event in England, as the particular country in question was to become, was subsequently attributed to "the fire of righteous vengeance".

While enlightened scholarship has for long been in the habit of ridiculing the implications of such phraseology, several historians have recently gone out of their way to emphasise the essentially dramatic nature of this event and its consequences. These, realistically interpreted, appear greatly to exceed those expected with a mere exploratory invasion by a boatload of (Anglo)Saxon brigands as enlightened scholarship would normally have it (e.g. Myres, 1986 cf. Clube, 1992).

In other words, the possibility of severe cosmic events is no longer in principle denied and it may therefore be hardly surprising that ideas put about by neo-Platonists during the fourth and fifth centuries should have been in the ascendancy.

During the sixth century Justinian period, indeed, the social upheaval and environmental calamities appeared to be scaling new heights and it is not without significance that a firm administration then closed down the Platonist Academy in Athens and thereby effectively created a subversive undercurrent of astronomical knowledge which was to remain at the heart of Christendom’s intellectual discord for at least another fifteen hundred years (e.g. Lindberg, 1992)!

Thus it was in the aftermath of catastrophe, during the latter half of the Justinian administration, that (Byzantine) Christendom securely embraced Aristotelian doctrine for the first time, to be followed a century later along this track by (Muslim, non-Arab) Islam (e.g. Brown, 1971). Subsequently, another five centuries were to pass before Aristotelian doctrine was also embraced by Western European Christendom by which time the latter came to be seen as having experienced an intellectual dark age of some seven or eight centuries.

Now, as we acquire an improved understanding of the relevant cosmic facts (Section 3), it seems that the crucial scientific advances later engineered by Kepler, Bruno, Galileo and Newton provided us with the basic framework which eventually led to the Space Age revelations culminating with the split comet by Jove and which will in due course mark the astronomical notions of the neo-Platonists as ones which should never have been set aside!

3. EVOLUTION, PUNCTUATIONAL CRISES AND THE THREAT TO CIVILIZATION

3.1. Punctuated Equilibrium

The idea that evolution on Earth proceeds at a uniform pace towards some undefined state of perfection in the remote future has given way in recent years to one involving successive states of "punctuated equilibrium" (Gould and Eldredge, 1977). Thus, in keeping with evolution’s supposedly progressive nature, it is assumed that both the environment and the distribution of living species remain in successive uniformitarian states for characteristically long periods of time and that these also begin and end with much briefer periods when both the environment and the distribution of species undergo very rapid upheaval.

There is an implicit assumption here, of course, that the upheavals are then necessarily progressive whereas in practice the condition of the environment along with the distribution and character of species, treated broadly as a geophysical/biophysical cum geochemical/biochemical state, is probably most simply perceived as experiencing a catastrophic recession followed by a catastrophic advance. An ‘advance’ as such does not then have any absolute significance but is merely said to be so on account of its retrospective accord with the direction taken to reach the following equilibrium state.

Under these circumstances, it is to be expected that we are dealing with uniformitarian states which are broadly regressive rather than progressive - that is, tending towards some statistically average state rather than deviating from it - and punctuational states which broadly comprise a recession forced by cometary input and an arguably deterministic advance forced by the random disequilibrium so inflicted.

The significance of cometary inputs is that they allow both biophysical and biochemical effects i.e. cosmic insertions reaching different levels in the atmosphere which are capable of generating either catastrophic explosions or catastrophic loading of the atmosphere with particulate material (dust) bearing biologically active chemicals. If this understanding is generally correct then it is clear that the Darwinian perspective on evolution, suggestive of an intrinsic directional quality in natural selection, is no longer supported and that we should look to the random yet (in principle) predictable cosmic inputs and their induced chaos as the fundamental controlling factor determining the course of evolution. Natural selection, on this account, is but a counterbalancing process tending to preserve equilibrium after a disturbance and is essentially mundane!

With the advances during recent years in our knowledge of the astronomical environment, there has been a tendency to suppose these ‘punctuations’ might reasonably be associated with isolated ‘impact crises’ due to encounters with single bodies in Earth-crossing orbits. While, as a matter of definition, it might be considered arguable exactly what level of crisis qualifies as a punctuation in the terrestrial record, one can perhaps assume, as a matter of principle, that only those impinging bodies capable of significantly influencing the whole globe for a brief period should be considered.

It is on just such a basis apparently that single near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than a kilometre or so in size have come to be the new focus of attention so far as terrestrial evolution is concerned. Indeed, through this rather simplistic perception, recognizing also that the human species is a global phenomenon, the notion that km-plus NEOs are the most serious threat to civilization has recently gained some impetus (e.g. Chapman and Morrison, 1994).

Civilization however, is not something that we necessarily associate with mankind as a whole; rather we envisage several different ‘civilizations’ which occupy different parts of the globe at any one time; and many ‘civilizations’ during the course of history which have flowered and foundered (e.g. Spengler, 1932; Toynbee 1945).

Civilization, in fact, treated as a modest evolutionary aspect of the human species, not only appears to be associated with distinct ethnographic and demographic qualities of mankind but tends to be regarded as a local rather than a global phenomenon; in which case, the theory of punctuated equilibrium would seem to require that single or multiple sub-km NEOs capable of depositing massive dust veils or inducing super-Tunguska events represent the commonest and hence most likely serious threat to an individual civilization.

At the same time, it may have to be admitted that the modern trend towards the rapid ‘globalization’ of civilization and its other qualities is perhaps rendering these characteristics more synonymous with mankind as a whole than was formerly accepted. But however globalized and/or superficial the evolutionary characteristics of civilization may be, it is clear that this more qualified understanding of punctuated equilibrium allows the possibility of localized evolution of a dominant strain in association with a localized cosmic input such as a super-Tunguska event and of the global extension of this dominant strain in due course. Such a turn of events is not excluded apparently by the present condition of the human species and its evolution from a single African location during the past million years or so.

It follows from considerations such as these that the evolution of civilization may be no more than a simple extension of the evolution of biological species. Thus we are accustomed to the idea of punctuated equilibrium in biological evolution reflecting isolated encounters with the single km-plus (meteoritic) asteroids which have undergone a prior series of orbital deflections since leaving the asteroid belt. But we are less familiar perhaps with the idea of ‘punctuational crises’ affecting biological evolution and the advance of civilization, these being due to the more sustained bombardments by fragmentation debris when active, dormant or dead comets which have deviated from the most likely source of comets (the Oort cloud, say) undergo significant splitting in Earth-crossing orbits. Such orbital debris encountering the Earth’s atmosphere is evidently capable of introducing both high-level dust and low-level explosions, depending on its mass and cohesive strength, and it follows that punctuational crises are comprised of global coolings and super-Tunguska events together with a generally enhanced fireball flux.

Taken as a whole and in conjunction with a given planetary target (e.g. Jupiter, Earth etc.), the response function to the bombardments is inevitably complex. Nevertheless, we can broadly expect that the strength of a punctuational crisis will vary as the progenitor comet mass, the inverse (velocity) dispersion of its debris and the inverse (time) delay since fragmentation. In which case the encounter between Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (P/SL-9) and Jupiter may be taken as representing an extreme punctuational crisis where the dispersion and delay were small.

An extreme punctuational crisis affecting our planet and involving multiple comet fragments may also be envisaged for such evolutionary events as the mass extinction of species, for example the KT event 65 Myr ago. Such rare events however are at one end of the evolutionary scale: at the other end of the scale, we deal with the lesser but more frequent crises affecting the Earth which have disturbed civilization several times during recent millennia - these may have had smaller inverse dispersions and smaller inverse delays but are no less important for that!

Indeed, such crises can now be regarded as the smallest units of our overall catastrophic experience; and to place them in perspective, we need to consider the catastrophic record as a whole. This leads us to recognise the relatively sudden flowering and foundering of civilizations during interglacials as the principal signatures of punctuational crises that arise as the corresponding debris of a giant comet in a short-period, Earth-crossing orbit passes through the final stages (splittings) of its evolution and decline.

Thus we envisage a situation where the particular mass distribution of comets settling in Earth-crossing orbits includes occasional very massive candidates up to a few hundred kilometres in size for it is the evolution of these very massive comets which seems to be dominant in the terrestrial record. For example, the contemporary millennia can now be seen in the context of successive myriads of years (104 - 105 yr) in which the global coolings either persist (a glacial period under the control of a disintegrating giant comet) or remain largely in abeyance (an interglacial period under the control of a largely dispersed giant comet).

The interwoven glacial-interglacial structure which is then imprinted from time to time on the terrestrial record and corresponds to ice ages some - 106 - 108 yr in duration is then readily enough understood in terms of Oort cloud perturbations which characteristically last for such periods of time and of a resulting overall flux of giant comets settling in short-period, Earth-crossing orbits which is apparently not so very different from that currently observed (Bailey et al., 1994).

The evidence, in other words, seems to indicate that it is the cometary flux which dominates the general course of biological evolution, the general course of the global climate and the general course of the civilization to which we belong.

Such pre-eminence in terrestrial affairs accorded to comets remains, of course, a very uncomfortable proposition for much of twentieth century civilization and science.

3.2. Cumulative record of catastrophes

Our knowledge of the impactor flux reflecting the general state of the inner Solar System environment is largely based on the cumulative counts of impact craters formed on lunar mares since the end of the heavy bombardment phase. As a result, the diameter-flux relationship for the largest impactors arriving at the Earth is commonly represented by a simple uniformitarian power law:

Phi dot (D) = k D E(-alpha), 1 < D < 10 E(2.5) km

Continuity considerations require that this relationship is applicable to the potential impactors in Earth-crossing orbits which are currently observed. Amongst these we must include the Earth-crossers having intermediate and long period orbits which reach out beyond Jupiter towards the Oort cloud. However, their particular direct influence, in comparison with that of the Earth-crossers in sub-Jovian space, which principally derive from short-period aster­oidal (mainbelt) and short-period cometary (Jupiter family) reservoirs, is so small that they can reasonably be neglected for the purposes of the present discussion.

It follows that the asteroidal and cometary bodies of interest in Earth-crossing orbits, comprising mostly their sub-asteroidal and sub-cometary fragmentation products which encounter the Earth (mete­orites and meteoroids, respectively), are essentially those surviving in two sub-Jovian orbital regimes. These have ‘dynamical lifetimes’ of ~ 10E8 yr and ~ 10E6 yr, respectively, depending on the eccentricity of their progenitor injection orbits - below and above 0.5, say. Thus, so far as these short-period reservoirs dominating the terrestrial influx are concerned, it is basically or­bital eccentricity which determines the likelihood of a grazing encounter with a major celestial body such as would tend to remove these smaller bodies from inner Solar System space, and it is now recognized that the terrestrial planets are most likely to play this role when e < 0.5 (Wetherill, 1988; 1991) while the Sun and Jupiter are most likely to play this role when e > 0.5 (Froeschle et al., 1995).

Transitions between these orbital regimes are not of course excluded, so their unique cat­egorization in terms of asteroids and comets, respectively, cannot be absolutely relied upon. Nevertheless it is broadly the case that meteorites and meteoroids have differing (top-heavy) mass distributions and fragmentation spectra as well as differing physical and dynamical life­times with the result that cometary-meteoroidal impactors, unlike their asteroidal-meteoritic counterparts, cannot be expected to achieve a fully relaxed spatial distribution with respect to solar ecliptic longitude and latitude. In other words, the minor body flux of cometary origin normally takes a period of time to become fully sporadic which is significantly in excess of its physical survival time. The result, as a consequence of hierarchical disintegration, is that the sporadic distribution is only present at higher (D > 1 km) and lower (D < 10-3km) mass lev­els while the uniformitarian law undergoes an observed steepening in the intermediate range, such that

Phi dot (D) = k D E(-beta), 10E(-3) < D < 1 km

where Beta > alpha (Shoemaker, 1983). The relationships (1) and (2) are based on the lunar cratering record but we can also determine the diameter-flux relationship for smaller impactors currently arriving at the Earth, as derived from the bodies in space which are observed either in situ or penetrating the atmosphere (Rabinowitz et at, 1993; Ceplecha, 1992; Tagliaferri et al., 1994), whence it turns out that

Phi subzero dot (D) = ~ 10 - 100 X Phi dot (D), D < 10E(-2) km

This may evidently be understood as a temporary condition, also in accordance with the observational steepening, and has for some while been attributed, as we have seen, to a still disintegrating, very large comet (Kresak, 1981) of the kind now believed to be present in the inner Solar System from time to time (Delta t ~ 10E5 yr; Bailey et al., 1994).

The steepening thus straightforwardly implies that the commonest ‘evolutionary events’ on Earth relating to the low mass end of the Solar System minor body population (i.e. 10E(-1) < D < 1 km) are due to correlated encounters with the hierarchically disintegrated products of the debris from successive giant comets.

The appeal to a contemporary giant comet does of course represent a general departure from uniformitarianism on timescales 10E4 - 10E6 yr, the typical interval between giant comets settling in sub-Jovian space. The cumulative record of catastrophes thus leaves open the question whether there are additional modulations of the terrestrial record on timescales < and > 10E4 - 10E6 yr which would also be indicative of a predominantly cometary influence on terrestrial evolution.

3.3. Punctuational crises

To many investigators, the idea that isolated impact crises rising above some global threshold are the only astronomical influence we need consider when dealing with evolutionary processes in geology and biology is simply not compatible with the evident complexity of the terrestrial record (Hallam, 1989). Thus it is widely recognized that long-term climatic and other factors must also be involved and it has been known for seventy years that the terrestrial record is marked by periodic and stochastic modulations on timescales between 10E6 and 10E9 yr indicative of a Galactic driving force (e.g. Holmes, 1927). Indeed it is for these reasons that many investigators in recent years have given greater credence to a cometary (Oort cloud) rather than a (Mainbelt) asteroidal source of ‘punctuational crises’ (see Section 3.4).

The role model for punctuations then is not the ostensibly narrow epoch associated with a random (km-plus) asteroid; rather it is the considerably broader epoch associated with the relatively short-lived, orbitally correlated, disintegration products of a not-so-random (km-plus) comet.

There are several points to be made here. First, these considerably broader epochs may be characterized by one or more global coolings and/or super-Tunguska events occurring as a prelude to or in association with an enhanced fireball flux: events of this kind are to be expected as a consequence of high-l